The midterm elections are now just days away, but it might take until December to find out if Democrats have kept their tenuous grip on the U.S. Senate.
That’s because one crucial Senate race is happening in Georgia, where state law requires a runoff election when no candidate wins a majority — often described as 50% plus one vote.
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Having to wait on Georgia would be a case of déjà vu for investors
SPX,
and other election watchers. After the November 2020 elections, the state ran two Senate runoffs in January 2021 that Democrats won to take control of that chamber of Congress.
The Senate is currently split 50-50, with Democrats in control only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes.
Georgia’s 2022 Senate race features Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker, as well as a Libertarian Party candidate, Chase Oliver.
Analysts at 22V Research said Wednesday that they’re expecting a Georgia runoff, which would take place on Dec. 6.
“A surprise next week would be a known outcome by the morning of November 9, but if that develops it’s very likely to be a pro-GOP signal and one that delivers a two- or three-seat Senate margin,” wrote 22V’s Kim Wallace and Sandra Namoos in a note.
“With so many tight races polling within the margin of error, it is more likely that we won’t know the outcome for the Senate until after a possible Georgia runoff on December 6th.”
An InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll conducted last week found Walker had 48% support vs. 45% for Warnock, 2% for Oliver and 2% undecided.
An analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, Chris Krueger, has warned clients that Oliver’s presence in the race might ensure that there’s a runoff.
“There is a Libertarian candidate in the race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA)
and GOP candidate Herschel Walker. That alone could keep the race margins under 50% +1,” wrote Krueger in a note earlier this year.
“Of course 2022 was going to overtime,” the Cowen analyst added.
Now read: Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say
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